Friday, December 14, 2012

If You Can't Outpitch Them, Outhit Them: Los Angeles Angels Lose Out On Zack Greinke, Take Josh Hamilton As Consolation Prize

I guess Los Angeles Angels' General Manager Jerry Dipoto decided that if you can't outpitch them, then you outhit them instead. After losing out on the Zack Greinke sweepstakes to the Los Angeles Dodgers, they scored a valuable consolation prize in hard-hitting Texas Rangers' outfielder Josh Hamilton, signing him to a five-year, $125 million contract. This is less than the guaranteed $147 million for six years offered Greinke by the Dodgers.

Hamilton would become the Angels' left fielder, joining Mike Trout in center field and Mark Trumbo in left field. He is younger and adds considerably more power than the departed left fielder Torii Hunter, who chose to sign with Detroit. While Josh Hamilton has a reputation for streakiness on offense and has had to work through a few personal issues, he is still one of the most dangerous offensive players in the game. In 2012, he smacked a career-high 43 home runs and drove in 128 runs; he's hit as high as .359 in 2010.

But all this offense was displayed as a Texas Ranger. The Rangers play their home games in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the major leagues. In contrast, Anaheim Stadium is more of a pitcher's park. So can Hamilton produce offensively in Anaheim? ESPN's Michael Veneziano seems to think so; his analysis revealed that only one the homers Hamilton hit last year would not have gone out of Anaheim Stadium.

However, Rangers Ballpark sits at a higher elevation and has warmer temperatures during the summer, both of which cause balls to go further. In contrast, night games at Anaheim Stadium are played at sea level and the air is cooler and heavier when the marine layer moves in. Thus we can expect some decrease in Hamilton's home run totals. How much? Let's look at Albert Pujols for an example. In his first year as an Angel in 2012, he dropped from 37 homers to 30. While some of that may be attributable to adjusting to American League pitching, some of it must also be attributable to the stadium. Thus we can expect Josh Hamilton to produce 30-35 home runs; anything beyond 35 would be a bonus. Combined with a .300 batting average, that would be a productive year. By the way, Hamilton is batting .260 and slugging .440 at Angels Stadium in his career, while he has a .315 BA and .592 slugging percentage at Rangers Ballpark.