I guess Los Angeles Angels' General Manager Jerry Dipoto decided that if you can't outpitch them, then you outhit them instead. After losing out on the Zack Greinke sweepstakes to the Los Angeles Dodgers, they scored a valuable consolation prize in hard-hitting Texas Rangers' outfielder Josh Hamilton, signing him to a five-year, $125 million contract. This is less than the guaranteed $147 million for six years offered Greinke by the Dodgers.
Hamilton would become the Angels' left fielder, joining Mike Trout in center field and Mark Trumbo in left field. He is younger and adds considerably more power than the departed left fielder Torii Hunter, who chose to sign with Detroit. While Josh Hamilton has a reputation for streakiness on offense and has had to work through a few personal issues, he is still one of the most dangerous offensive players in the game. In 2012, he smacked a career-high 43 home runs and drove in 128 runs; he's hit as high as .359 in 2010.
But all this offense was displayed as a Texas Ranger. The Rangers play their home games in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the major leagues. In contrast, Anaheim Stadium is more of a pitcher's park. So can Hamilton produce offensively in Anaheim? ESPN's Michael Veneziano seems to think so; his analysis revealed that only one the homers Hamilton hit last year would not have gone out of Anaheim Stadium.
However, Rangers Ballpark sits at a higher elevation and has warmer temperatures during the summer, both of which cause balls to go further. In contrast, night games at Anaheim Stadium are played at sea level and the air is cooler and heavier when the marine layer moves in. Thus we can expect some decrease in Hamilton's home run totals. How much? Let's look at Albert Pujols for an example. In his first year as an Angel in 2012, he dropped from 37 homers to 30. While some of that may be attributable to adjusting to American League pitching, some of it must also be attributable to the stadium. Thus we can expect Josh Hamilton to produce 30-35 home runs; anything beyond 35 would be a bonus. Combined with a .300 batting average, that would be a productive year. By the way, Hamilton is batting .260 and slugging .440 at Angels Stadium in his career, while he has a .315 BA and .592 slugging percentage at Rangers Ballpark.
ESPN's David Schoenfield doesn't believe the acquisition of Hamilton ensures the Angels a playoff spot. Using the new Wins Above Replacement (WAR) statistic which has become a cult for many sportswriters, he points out that Torii Hunter had a better WAR than Hamilton in 2012. However, the 2013 Hunter will NOT have a better WAR than the 2013 Hamilton; furthermore, Hunter (37) is five years older than Hamilton (32). But Schoenfield also points out that the Angels' starting pitching is thin beyond Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson. The additional offense will take the pressure off young potential number five starter Garrett Richards; he can afford to make a few more mistakes without being crowned the next Brandon Wood. The Angels will be beating teams by 9-7 scores rather than 4-2 scores.
With the acquisition of Josh Hamilton, the Angels have unquestionably moved past the Oakland A's in the Western Division. Oakland was the real deal last year, but they just got hot at the right time and had good pitching. They have to prove it again. And since the Rangers have also lost Michael Young and Mike Napoli, it's possible the Angels may have caught up to the Rangers. So I'd say that barring a catastrophic breakdown, they have a good shot at making the playoffs. Here's the prospective lineup:
CF Mike Trout
SS Erick Aybar
1B Albert Pujols
LF Josh Hamilton
DH Kendrys Morales
RF Mark Trumbo
2B Howie Kendrick
3B Alberto Callaspo
C Chris Iannetta
There are five guys with 30 home run potential. That adds up to 150 home runs right off the bat.
Reaction: The most interesting reaction was published by Torii Hunter, who signed a two-year $26 million contract with Detroit. On December 13th, he Tweeted "I was told money was tight but I guess the Arte had money hidden under a Mattress. Business is business but don't lie". However, Hunter is 37 years old, and 37-year-old ballplayers don't suddenly become more productive. His good season in 2012 may have been the Indian summer of his career. Arte Moreno would rather pay $25 million per year for a younger and better outfielder than $13 million per year for a fading star.
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