Monday, April 15, 2013

Los Angeles Lakers On The Brink Of Eliminating The Utah Jazz From 2013 NBA Playoff Competition

Two of my favorite NBA teams are jockeying for the eighth and final Western Conference playoff spot, and on April 14th, 2013, one of them moved to the brink of deciding the issue. The Los Angeles Lakers, despite the loss of Kobe Bryant to an Achilles tear for anywhere from six to nine months, rose up and shot down the heavily-favored San Antonio Spurs 91-86 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. The Lakers were fueled by Dwight Howard, who had had 26 points and 17 rebounds, Steve Blake, who scored 23 points, and Paul Gasol, who hauled down 16 rebounds. As a result, the Lakers now have a 44-37 record, while the Utah Jazz remain at 42-38.

Which one has the better chance of making the playoffs? If the Lakers defeat the Houston Rockets in L.A. on April 17th, then they finish 45-37 and are in, regardless of how the Jazz do tonight. But if the Lakers lose, then the Utah Jazz must win both remaining games to finish at 44-38. The Jazz have the tougher task because their last two games are on the road, against Minnesota (a probable win) on April 15th and Memphis on April 17th (a probable loss). The Jazz are only 12-27 on the road this season so far. Of course, if the Jazz lose to the T-Wolves tonight, the Lakers are in. But if both teams finish with the same record, Utah goes to the playoffs because they won the season series against the Lakers, two games to one.

The Jazz basically shot themselves in the foot this season. At one point during the season, they were 31-24 and seemed a certainty to make the playoffs. Then they endured a 3-12 stretch which dropped them to 34-36. Meanwhile, the Lakers, who had started out slow at 17-25, began a 19-7 stretch which elevated them to 36-32 and put them back in the playoff hunt. Although the Jazz subsequently rallied and have now won eight of their last 10, the Lakers have also remained hot. So they are in the position of having to win two games on the road just to stay in the chase, but require help from Houston. The Jazz do not totally control their own destiny.

The reward? To face the number one seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the playoffs. This may be a dubious reward, because the Thunder have streaked to a 59-21 record and have the inside track to lock in the number one seed. Both Utah and the Lakers have 1-3 records against the Thunder this year, so it appears that whichever team gets in will bow out to the Thunder in the first round, perhaps in as few as five games. Even if Kobe Bryant was available, the Thunder would still take the Lakers, although it might take six games to do it. Basically, the Lakers and the Jazz are jockeying for the honor of serving as cannon fodder for the Thunder in the first round.

My prediction is that the Lakers will make it in, simply because I can't see Utah defeating the Memphis Grizzlies in Memphis.

Update: On April 15th, the Jazz beat Minnesota 96-80. So now it all boils down to Wednesday. The Jazz must beat the Grizzlies in Memphis AND the Rockets must beat the Lakers in L.A. for the Jazz to make the playoffs.

Update #2: On April 17th, as expected, Memphis ripped the Jazz 86-70, as the Grizzlies turned on the heat in the third quarter. So Utah is out, and the Lakers are in.

Saturday, April 13, 2013

Have The 2013 Los Angeles Angels Finally Turned The Corner After A Come-From-Behind 5-4 Win Over The Houston Astros?

The Los Angeles Angels, who stumbled into Game #2 of a three-game home series against the Houston Astros on Saturday April 13th, 2013, appeared to be on their way to another loss when they trailed 4-1 after seven innings. But they staged a come-from-behind 5-4 over the Astros, leading this Angel fan to wonder if perhaps the worst is over and the high-priced, multi-talented Angels will start playing up to their championship potential.

The Angels entered the game mired in a five-game losing streak. They had been swept three straight at home by Oakland, outscored 28-11. They lost the opener to Houston 5-0, barely making a peep offensively. Their 2-8 start matched the 1961 Angels for the team's worst start in history. And after seven innings of Saturday's game, it looked like another setback as they trailed Houston 4-1.

But then in the bottom of the eighth, the Angels woke up. Albert Pujols led off with a single. Then with one out, Mark Trumbo doubled, sending Pujols to third. Howie Kendrick hit what was supposed to be a sacrifice fly to right field, but Astros right fielder J. D. Martinez turned it into an error, scoring Pujols and sending Trumbo to third, while Kendrick hustled to second base on Martinez' slow recovery. It was now 4-2 Astros, still one out. Then Chris Ianetta hit a sacrifice fly to center field for the second out, scoring Trumbo, but when Kendrick reversed course and tried to go back to second, he was thrown out. Inning ended with the Astros leading 4-3.

Could the unthinkable happen? With one out in the bottom of the ninth, Luis Jimenez walked. Then with two out, Mike Trout singled, sending Jimenez to second. Up stepped Pujols -- a much different hitter than he was in 2012. Pujols smacked a 1-0 pitch deep into left field for a double, scoring both Jimenez and Trout. Angels win, 5-4. Also noteworthy was Josh Hamilton's first home run of the season; he's struggled offensively, perhaps trying too hard to impress his new teammates and the Angels' fans.

For the second day in a row, the Angels' much-maligned and much-ravaged pitching staff performed competitively. Garrett Richards, starting in place of the injured Jered Weaver, allowed a credible four runs, three hits and three walks over 6 1/3 innings, in the process becoming the first Angels starter this season to get past the sixth inning. After Sean Burnett pitched two-thirds of a scoreless inning, allowing a hit that allowed one of Richards' runs to score and a sacrifice fly that led to another run, putting the Astros up 4-1 at that point, Michael Roth, who had just been called up from Double-A Arkansas to replace the injured Kevin Jepsen, pitched the last two innings and slammed the door shut, striking out four and allowing no hits or walks. Roth deservedly got the win in what is only his second year in pro baseball, and Halos Daily says Roth can hit the low 90s with his fastball, gets a unique break on his breaking ball because of a low 3/4 arm slot, and shows a pretty solid changeup. Roth has even blogged about his minor league experiences.

The Angels' pitching has been a source of trouble all season so far, beginning in spring training. In Cactus League competition, the Angels coughed up 229 runs, worst in all of baseball, leading to a 10-20 record. However, most of the runs were given up by pitchers who didn't make the big club, so there weren't too many worries. Then came the three-game disaster against Oakland, when they were outscored by 17 runs. After the first loss to Houston, the team ERA soared to 5.38. The vultures began circling over the head of the previously untouchable manager Mike Scioscia. On Sunday, C.J. Wilson will take the hill for the final game against Houston; since Wilson is now the de facto ace with Weaver laid up, a strong performance from him is necessary to get the Angels on a roll. A three-game series in Minnesota early next week gives the Angels an opportunity to pick up some ground before concluding the week with a tough series against the Tigers in Detroit.

Facts and Stats:

-- Current Standings
-- Latest Individual Hitting Stats
-- Latest Individual Pitching Stats

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Denver Broncos A Legitimate NFL Super Bowl Contender After Thrashing The Baltimore Ravens 34-17 In Baltimore

After 13 games of the 2012 NFL season, the Denver Broncos, riding an eight-game inning streak and sporting a 10-3 record, had established themselves as a legitimate playoff contender. But because they had lost three games to teams who have since claimed division titles -- Atlanta, New England, and Houston -- earlier this season, there was some question as to whether they could also be considered a Super Bowl contender. Would the Broncos become just another "one-and-done" team?

On December 16th, the Denver Broncos answered that question authoritatively, and yes, they can now be anointed as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Broncos went into the back yard of the Baltimore Ravens, a first-place team in the AFC's North Division with one of the NFL's toughest defenses, and thrashed the Ravens 34-17. And the game wasn't really as close as the score indicated; at the end of three quarters, the Broncos were leading 31-3.

The Broncos dominated the Ravens in every facet of the game. They possessed the ball 17 minutes longer than the Ravens. They had nine more first downs than the Ravens, They outgained them in total yardage, 350-278. The Broncos converted five of 16 third down opportunities. And yes, they got the big defensive play of the game -- a 98-yard interception return by Chris Harris with just 15 seconds left in the first half to give the Broncos a 17-0 halftime lead; it was the longest regular-season interception return in Broncos history. The defense pressured Joe Flacco all day so he only completed 50 percent of his passes, although his game score of 76.5 was not much worse the Peyton Manning's game score of 94.9.

It's impressive enough that the Broncos could beat the Ravens by this magnitude in the first place. But to do it on the road - IN BALTIMORE -- clearly shows they have the ability to win anywhere at anytime this season. And that marks them as a true Super Bowl contender, able to defeat New England and whoever represents the NFC. Chris Harris echoed that theme after the game when he said "You come to the Ravens' house and beat them handily, it's definitely a statement game. We definitely wanted to show to everybody that we're an elite team." Some purists might even consider an AFC conference championship game between Denver and new England to be the real Super Bowl this year. Denver's next objective is to end up one of the two playoff teams with a first round bye, allowing them to rest up from their aches and pains for an extra week. Currently, New England and Houston occupy the top two AFC spots which would give them the bye.

Reaction: ESPN blogger Bill Williamson says the turning point of the game was Chris Harris' interception return. Considering he ran it back for 98 yards, I would have to agree. Williamson adds that although Manning continued his MVP pace by completing 17 of 28 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, the Broncos great defense and the ground success makes them more than a one-man team. Another ESPN blogger, Jamison Hensley, fears the Ravens could miss the playoffs altogether, although it would require they lose their last two games. Their performance against Denver today makes that a possibility, particularly if the resurgent Indianapolis Colts win or tie any of last three games.

It's a great day to be a Bronco fan. The wreckage of the Josh McDaniels era is behind us. John Elway knew what he was doing when he romanced Peyton Manning.

Friday, December 14, 2012

If You Can't Outpitch Them, Outhit Them: Los Angeles Angels Lose Out On Zack Greinke, Take Josh Hamilton As Consolation Prize

I guess Los Angeles Angels' General Manager Jerry Dipoto decided that if you can't outpitch them, then you outhit them instead. After losing out on the Zack Greinke sweepstakes to the Los Angeles Dodgers, they scored a valuable consolation prize in hard-hitting Texas Rangers' outfielder Josh Hamilton, signing him to a five-year, $125 million contract. This is less than the guaranteed $147 million for six years offered Greinke by the Dodgers.

Hamilton would become the Angels' left fielder, joining Mike Trout in center field and Mark Trumbo in left field. He is younger and adds considerably more power than the departed left fielder Torii Hunter, who chose to sign with Detroit. While Josh Hamilton has a reputation for streakiness on offense and has had to work through a few personal issues, he is still one of the most dangerous offensive players in the game. In 2012, he smacked a career-high 43 home runs and drove in 128 runs; he's hit as high as .359 in 2010.

But all this offense was displayed as a Texas Ranger. The Rangers play their home games in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the major leagues. In contrast, Anaheim Stadium is more of a pitcher's park. So can Hamilton produce offensively in Anaheim? ESPN's Michael Veneziano seems to think so; his analysis revealed that only one the homers Hamilton hit last year would not have gone out of Anaheim Stadium.

However, Rangers Ballpark sits at a higher elevation and has warmer temperatures during the summer, both of which cause balls to go further. In contrast, night games at Anaheim Stadium are played at sea level and the air is cooler and heavier when the marine layer moves in. Thus we can expect some decrease in Hamilton's home run totals. How much? Let's look at Albert Pujols for an example. In his first year as an Angel in 2012, he dropped from 37 homers to 30. While some of that may be attributable to adjusting to American League pitching, some of it must also be attributable to the stadium. Thus we can expect Josh Hamilton to produce 30-35 home runs; anything beyond 35 would be a bonus. Combined with a .300 batting average, that would be a productive year. By the way, Hamilton is batting .260 and slugging .440 at Angels Stadium in his career, while he has a .315 BA and .592 slugging percentage at Rangers Ballpark.

Thursday, December 6, 2012

As Zack Greinke Eyes Texas, Los Angeles Angels Sign Starter Joe Blanton And Reliever Sean Burnett

It appears that those of us Angels fans who were hoping that Zack Greinke would re-sign with the Halos will be disappointed. The word from ESPN on December 6th, 2012 is that he's leaning towards the Texas Rangers, which will make them stronger. Update: Greinke eventually signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers for six years at a guaranteed $147 million.

But it appears the Angels already accounted for that possibility. On December 5th, they announced the signing of free agent Joe Blanton to a two-year contract worth $15 million, with a club option for a third year. The right-hander split time between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2012, compiling a 10-13, 4.71 record.

The one advantage Blanton brings to the table is that he can eat up innings -- when he's healthy. Blanton missed much of 2011 with a right elbow injury. In 2012, he worked 191 innings. He also knows where he's throwing; he walked only 34 batters and struck out 167 for an excellent 4.88 strikeouts-to-walks ratio. Unfortunately, he either doesn't put enough mustard on the ball, or else he can't move it around the strike zone deceptively enough, because he also yielded 207 hits and served up 29 homers. Ervin Santana had the same problem in 2012, and the Angels dumped him to Kansas City for a song. Halos Daily points out that the heavier air at Anaheim Stadium could suppress Blanton's gopher balls, and that some of those deep flies could be reeled in by flyhawks such as Peter Bourjos and Mike Trout. Blanton's career ERA is 4.37, and in only two seasons did he post an ERA of less than 4.00. This is offset somewhat by a winning 83-75 lifetime record.

So now an Angels starting rotation of Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Tommy Hanson, and Joe Blanton takes shape, with Jerome Williams and Garrett Richards competing for the number five spot. This is a rotation which can win if backed up by a good bullpen. And the Angels took another step towards strengthening that bullpen by signing left-handed middle reliever Sean Burnett away from the Washington Nationals pending completion of a physical. Despite posting a 1-2, 2.38 record with 31 holds in 2012, Burnett pitched the entire second half with a bone spur in his left elbow, which required relatively minor surgery following the postseason, so the physical is a precaution to determine his recovery progress. The Los Angeles Times reports that Burnett signed for two years at $8 million.

Thus Burnett joins a bullpen already headed up by Ernesto Frieri, Kevin Jepsen, and newcomer Ryan Madson. Despite Frieri's success as a closer in 2012, the Angels have already penciled in Madson as their closer for 2013, thinking that Frieri can be more helpful as a middle reliever where they were plagued with inconsistency in 2012. Madson had 32 saves for the Phillies in 2011; he was injured all of 2012. Scott Downs is also slated to return in 2013.

Maybe it's a good thing that the Angels decided to get two lesser but still useful pitchers for the same price they would have paid for Zack Greinke.