Baseball Prospectus provides playoff odds for each team, updated daily. Their output is based upon numerous replays using a Monte Carlo simulation model. Screenshots of the latest output, as of 8:51 A.M. PDT on July 20th, 2011, are provided below, along with my own commentary (I omitted the 1-day and 7-day delta columns because of limited pertinence):
A.L. East: Boston and New York are unquestionably the big guns; both have run differentials of greater than +100. Tampa Bay is overmatched. The wild card team is likely to come from this division.
A.L. Central: It is believed Detroit will assert itself and prevail over Cleveland. Apparently, the model expects that Detroit will resolve its inconsistent pitching, and that Cleveland has actually been playing over its head and will revert to a .500 level, barely holding off the Chicago White Sox. The wild card team is unlikely to come from this division.
A.L West: The Texas Rangers are expected to continue winning and pull away from the Los Angeles Angels; the Rangers have had the bats, and now the pitching is rounding into form. The Angels still have the best pitching in the division, but lack the offense needed to dominate. They have to scratch for too many victories, which narrows their margin of error too much. The Mariners are expected to continue sliding downward to the basement. This division is unlikely to produce the wild card.
N.L. East: The Philadelphia Phillies are clearly the class of the league, but the Atlanta Braves are expected to continue in contention. This division is most likely to produce the wild card.
N.L. Central: Clearly up for grabs, with Milwaukee and St. Louis considered the most likely to win the division. Pittsburgh has the same problem as the Angels; good pitching but an inconsistent offense leading to an insufficient margin of error. They're expected to fall back to .500. Cincinnati is considered too inconsistent to compete; they're not expected to launch a second half surge. Houston is headed for their worst won-lost percentage in history. The wild card is unlikely to come from this division.
N.L. West: The San Francisco Giants continue to win despite a low positive run differential; their pitching carries them. Arizona is expected to fall back to a more distant second, but if the Giants don't start hitting more authoritatively, the D-Backs will hang in there until the last week. Then again, Colorado could get hot and overhaul the D-Backs, although the model thinks differently. The wild card is unlikely to come from this division.
A repeat of last year's Texas-San Francisco World Series is possible; both look like they'll make the playoffs. But based upon this year's output, a World Series between Boston and Philadelphia is more likely.
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