Two of my favorite NBA teams are jockeying for the eighth and final Western Conference playoff spot, and on April 14th, 2013, one of them moved to the brink of deciding the issue. The Los Angeles Lakers, despite the loss of Kobe Bryant to an Achilles tear for anywhere from six to nine months, rose up and shot down the heavily-favored San Antonio Spurs 91-86 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. The Lakers were fueled by Dwight Howard, who had had 26 points and 17 rebounds, Steve Blake, who scored 23 points, and Paul Gasol, who hauled down 16 rebounds. As a result, the Lakers now have a 44-37 record, while the Utah Jazz remain at 42-38.
Which one has the better chance of making the playoffs? If the Lakers defeat the Houston Rockets in L.A. on April 17th, then they finish 45-37 and are in, regardless of how the Jazz do tonight. But if the Lakers lose, then the Utah Jazz must win both remaining games to finish at 44-38. The Jazz have the tougher task because their last two games are on the road, against Minnesota (a probable win) on April 15th and Memphis on April 17th (a probable loss). The Jazz are only 12-27 on the road this season so far. Of course, if the Jazz lose to the T-Wolves tonight, the Lakers are in. But if both teams finish with the same record, Utah goes to the playoffs because they won the season series against the Lakers, two games to one.
The Jazz basically shot themselves in the foot this season. At one point during the season, they were 31-24 and seemed a certainty to make the playoffs. Then they endured a 3-12 stretch which dropped them to 34-36. Meanwhile, the Lakers, who had started out slow at 17-25, began a 19-7 stretch which elevated them to 36-32 and put them back in the playoff hunt. Although the Jazz subsequently rallied and have now won eight of their last 10, the Lakers have also remained hot. So they are in the position of having to win two games on the road just to stay in the chase, but require help from Houston. The Jazz do not totally control their own destiny.
The reward? To face the number one seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the playoffs. This may be a dubious reward, because the Thunder have streaked to a 59-21 record and have the inside track to lock in the number one seed. Both Utah and the Lakers have 1-3 records against the Thunder this year, so it appears that whichever team gets in will bow out to the Thunder in the first round, perhaps in as few as five games. Even if Kobe Bryant was available, the Thunder would still take the Lakers, although it might take six games to do it. Basically, the Lakers and the Jazz are jockeying for the honor of serving as cannon fodder for the Thunder in the first round.
My prediction is that the Lakers will make it in, simply because I can't see Utah defeating the Memphis Grizzlies in Memphis.
Update: On April 15th, the Jazz beat Minnesota 96-80. So now it all boils down to Wednesday. The Jazz must beat the Grizzlies in Memphis AND the Rockets must beat the Lakers in L.A. for the Jazz to make the playoffs.
Update #2: On April 17th, as expected, Memphis ripped the Jazz 86-70, as the Grizzlies turned on the heat in the third quarter. So Utah is out, and the Lakers are in.
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